From: Richard Arsinow <richard.arsinow@rauland.com>
Subject: RE: Final questions
I think our chances of serious reform are around 2, meaning that some superfluous compromised bill will be passed. It will not address any of the fundamental problems with Social Security. It may benefit a few people in a big way, or a lot of people in a very tiny way.
A rating of 10 should be reserved for a plan which has guaranteed self-funding in perpetuity, not just solvency for 75 years.
Any individual accounts legislation which might pass this year, based on what I saw on the Why Reform Now? board, would not represent meaningful reform. Benefits would still be determined by redistributive formula and not by the accumulation in the accounts, and the accounts might have to be given back to the government at retirement time, in exchange for formula benefits. Yes, it seems the tough decisions will be left to future legislatures.
If I could go with just one proposal, which would be guaranteed to pass and be signed as is, I'd go with H.R. 874, introduced by Rep. John Porter (R-IL). The bill, in PDF format, can be found at:
