RE: What "values" created the existing system?
- Date: Sat, 1 May 1999 13:57:23 EDT
- From: RRand98163@aol.com
- Subject: RE: What "values" created the existing system?
Dear Michael Jones,
I would like to respond to your comments on my comments. I note that
you have changed and now concede that the question is what changes are wise
and desirable, not whether the present system should be continued without
change.
The original tax legislation provided for an immediate tax rate of
2%, increasing in stages to 6%, which is really the rate that should be
compared to the current 12.4%. A godd part of the increase reflects added
benefits, including disability and survivor benefits. I think appropriate
changes in the current system should and can be made without increasing the
current tax rate. At some point, consideration should be given to the 1992
Clinton proposal to allow deduction of Social Security taxes for income tax
purposes.
The covered taxable wage is increased under present law in line with
inflation. From time to time, Congress has passed increases beyond this
inflation rule. When feasible, consideration should be given to rolling back
to the 80% rule of thumb for setting the covered wage. This somewhat
arbitrary rule says that covered wages should approximate 80% of total wages
and now we are closer to 85%.
The current system with wise and prudent changes will pay 100%
benefits indefinitely. That the current system is projected to pay only 70%
beginning in 2034 is relevant only if you assume that no wise and prudent
changes will be made before then.
Under a pay-as-you-go system, the question of investment return does
not exist. Presently, the so-called surplus is scheduled to be used to pay
the extra cost of the baby boomer generation. Under a pre-funded personal
account system, investment return would be very important, but it is
impossible to consider such a system without some rational scheme for dealing
with the six trillion dollar transition cost.
The present law calls for increasing the retiremnt age in very
gradual stages, reaching 67 in 2027, not in one year as you falsely assert.
This only partly addresses the problem of increasing longevity. A fuller
answer is a schem proposed by Robert Myers which would increase the age to 70
in 2037 and 75 in 2074. Such schedules can always be modified if anticipated
improvements in mortality do not occur.
You say changes would put more seniors into poverty., Continuing the
present retirement age of 65 and ignoring increasing life expectancies would
tend to bring more seniors out of poverty, while recognizing the problem
should have no effect on poverty among seniors.
Instead of discussing the transition cost problem, you advised that I
study Chile's experience. I do intend to study it further. I would point out
that the Chilean plan includes a minimum guarantee, less than promised by the
prior sytem but large enough so that low-income workers gain no benefit from
taking out personal accounts and as a result low-income workers have not
participated in the personal accounts in Chile.