DAILY SUMMARY May 14

[National Dialogue Moderator <moderator>]

Daily Summary, May 14

Moderator's Question -- Final Question: Rate the Prospects for 
Reform This Year:

Bob Rosenblatt asked the panelists to rate the chances of Social Security legislation this year on a scale of 1 to 10 -- with 1 representing no action and 10 representing a 75- year solvency plan. He also asked whether Congress might agree on "add-on accounts", like the President's Universal Retirement Accounts and leave the tougher decisions for later. Finally, he asked which single reform option they would favor, if only one would pass.

• Gerry Shea rated the chances of reform legislation at 2 to 3. He favors the establishment of USA accounts but noted the "aggressive opposition" of many private account supporters. The most important reform option is to devote 62 percent of the federal budget surplus, both Social Security and non-Social Security, to strengthen Social Security and another 15 percent for Medicare.

• Sam Beard rated the chances of reform legislation as "a solid 7." He favors "progressive savings accounts" as a part of Social Security over "add-on" options but stated that the USA accounts will probably serve as the basis for bipartisan reform.

• Ann Combs rated the chances of reform legislation at 1.5 "maybe 2." She said some variation of USA accounts might pass because they reflect the Republicans idea of tax cuts. She said they don't represent Social Security reform (but are instead government funded IRAs), but they might result in the infrastructure for individual accounts (which might make it easier to create individual accounts after the 2000 elections). She believes it is a mistake to cherry pick recommended reforms but stated that, of all the options, the highest priority is to establish individual accounts using 2 percent of the current payroll taxes.

• John Rother rated the chances of reform legislation as a "long shot" and stated that the odds are worsening as the electoral cycle approaches. He also seemed to dismiss the prospects of some form of "add-on" accounts. He encouraged Congress and the Administration to act on a "package" of reforms to make Social Security solvent.

Public Comments -- Rate the Options for Reform:

• "Chances of anything meaningful": 1; Chances of "something being done for political posture": 10

• Another commenter said the longer the "war" against Serbia goes on, the less chance of passing anything meaningful; in this case a 2. He said the most important reform for now would use the current surplus for individual accounts.

• Another commenter said a bipartisan Social Security Plan will not be approved and said that applying 62 percent of the surplus to the National Debt is "the best we can or should do for now."

• Another commenter rated the chances at "around 2", meaning that "some superfluous compromised bill will be passed." He supports the proposal of Rep. John Porter (R-IL).

• One commenter differed with Rosenblatt's ratings. He preferred a "fully funded mandatory private investment account" financed with current payroll taxes plus a safety-net funded by general tax revenues. His preferred option is a 10; the 75 year solvency plan would merit a 3.

• Others also rated the chances of reform legislation as low: 0 to 1.

Ashley Schannauer