$10 Trillion and Life Expectancy

[RRand98163@aol.com]

Bill Larsen,

This is in response to your latest response.  I think it is probably 
impossible for us to come to agreement on almost anything--from my viewpoint 
almost all of your conclusions are based on deeply flawed analysis coupled 
with incorrect facts.  I would like to comment on one point. You state that 
retirement planning should not be based on the average life expectancy at 
retirement age but on a much larger number, for the sake of prudence and 
safety. Pension plans, annuities sold by insurance companies, and Social 
Security all involve pooling together large groups of persons in order to 
provide lifetime income to all participants. Such plans can safely rely on 
averages. The extra costs of income to those who live beyond the average 
lifetime is offset by the reduced costs to those who die before the average 
age at death. In statistical theory, this is referred to as the law of large 
numbers.

Most of your comments imply that the government actuaries are somehow 
distorting the true facts in order to advance some sinister and evil agenda. 
I who am personally acquainted with some of these men and women believe in 
their professional skill and integrity. Actuaries in private practice who 
advocate different policies have never attacked the professional integrity of 
the civil service actuaries.