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A Question for Bob Rosenblatt


You've asked some good questions.
I've enjoyed reading the panelists' responses.
Most have been quite informative.
Here's one I'd like to see you pose.

What's the long-term financial target for Social Security?
Actuarial balance?  Or long-term solvency?

Actuarial balance, as used by Social Security's actuaries, 
simply means that the program is expected to take in enough money
over the next 75 years to pay its obligations over the next 76.
In practice, that means having a Trust Fund that grows to about
35% of GDP, twenty-five years from now, then slowly empties out
until its on the verge of exhaustion in 2075.  Shortly thereafter,
the program becomes insolvent.

Genuine solvency, as used by the man in the street, would mean a
program whose Trust Fund is just as strong at the end of the 75-year
forecasting period as it is in the middle.  If Social Security 
had a Trust Fund equal to 45% of GDP in 2050, its Trust Fund would
still be equal to 45% of GDP in 2075.  That's true solvency.

A great many proposals now being kicked around claim to restore
actuarial balance.  Hardly any of them, however, tell us that
they'll go well beyond actuarial balance to deliver genuine solvency.

Which goal do the panelists favor?  Actuarial balance?  Or
genuine solvency?  (And how well do their own favorite programs do
in getting us to the goal they prefer?)

This is one question that's received much less attention than it
deserves.  I'd love to see you pose it for the panelists.  Thanks.

-Steve.
equal to 45% of GDP in 2050,  


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