SSA Models

[National Dialogue Moderator <moderator>]

A panelist wrote: "I would like to ask the members of Congress if they would
direct the SSA to provide experts like Mr. Reischauer and Ms. Weaver (and
other experts) with greater information on SSA computer models."

I am working diligently to introduce legislation that would require SSA to
provide more information to workers and analysts about the current program
and options for reform. Taking such steps would help prepare the nation for
a more informed debate on Social Security and make it easier to develop a
national consensus on real reform.  In addition, while providing a great
deal of information to the public, these steps would cost very little in
both political and financial terms. 

Although Social Security is the most popular government program, most
Americans know very little about how it operates and how its benefits
compare with alternative retirement investments. For example, millions of
Americans remain convinced that Social Security maintains a savings account
in each of their names.  Academic researchers are denied access to
information that would allow them to properly evaluate plans that could
increase the retirement security of future generations. Moreover, few
Americans realize that the average rate of return on their Social Security
taxes is only 1.2 percent, or that the program will reach insolvency by the
year 2014 without reform.  Congress should pass some simple, but extremely
important, changes that will make real reform more likely in the near
future.  Legislation I am working on would:

(1) Simplify and improve Social Security's Personal Earnings and Benefits
Estimate Statement (PEBES).
*	Data should be included on each PEBES statement on the recipient's
estimated rate of return from Social Security retirement taxes as well as a
comparison to the rate of return had that money been invested in government
bonds and stock market indexes.
*	A more accurate account of the program's future financial
difficulties should also be added to the PEBES statement.

(2) Improve the annual report of the Social Security Trustees to reflect
more accurately the program's long-term outlook. 
*	Information should be provided in the initial summary on any changes
since the last report in Social Security's aggregate dollar liability.
*	Estimates of the tax increases or benefit reductions that would be
necessary to avoid cash flow deficits should be included, as well as how
delaying action would change those estimates.

(3)  Allow all researchers access to Social Security's Continuous Work
History Sample (CWHS).
*	This would allow private researchers and government agencies to
analyze more accurately how Social Security reform changes would affect the
budget and the distribution of benefits among various income groups. The
Social Security Administration would retain the ability to edit and format
data to protect the privacy of individuals.
*	The release of this information is sought by both supporters and
opponents of Social Security reform.


-- Jim Kolbe