RE: Correcting Rep. Stenholm on Projections

[National Dialogue Moderator <moderator>]

There are clearly honest differences about what assumptions are reasonable.  There will be uncertainty in any projections.  That is why I believe that we are conservative in making assumptions about our plan.  In fact, when the Congressional Research Service analyzed several plans, including the Kolbe-Stenholm plan, they did so under different assumptions about stock market growth.  Our plan held up under all scenarios.  Advocates of any plan should be required to answer the question about whether their plan would work if things did not turn out as well as they assumed.  The Kolbe-Stenholm plan does very well under this test.

I share your interest in developing more detailed projections about stock market earnings and other economic factors.  But I would reiterate again that the Kolbe-Stenholm plan does not rely on stock market returns to work, and will still balance if stock market growth is closer to your projections than the projections used by the Social Security actuaries.  

Congressman Charlie Stenholm