I would like to commend Senator Gregg and Representative Kolbe for their honesty in discussing our lack of projections for stock returns. I hope that they are able to persuade their colleagues on both sides of the aisle, that before putting our Social Security money in the stock market, there should at least be a set of projections from the Social Security Administration as to the stock returns that can reasonably be projected.
It is remarkable that the public debate has proceeded so far, without any projections from the actuaries at the Social Security Administration as to the returns that can be expected in the stock market, given high current stock prices, and the slow profit growth projected by the Trustees. Without such projections, any claims on stock returns should be viewed essentially as invented numbers. Of course, we can also eliminate the projected shortfall by inventing numbers on wage or labor force growth as well. Presumably, most people would not view that as an acceptable way to solve the problem. They should treat unsupported claims on stock returns in exactly the same way.
I do have to correct Representative Kolbe on one thing he said. I am no longer at the Economic Policy Institute. I am now a Senior Fellow at the Preamble Center in Washington, D.C.
