Request for Projected Debt Levels under Plans

[Reed Davis <rdavis2@ix.netcom.com>]

Congressman Charlie Stenholm wrote:
>
> Suggestions from  the left and right that we can solve the problems
> facing Social Security without making any tough choices are
> misleading.  Scrutiny of these "free lunch" approaches reveals that
> these plans fund their promises by placing a tremendous burden on
> future taxpayers. I learned long ago that if something sounds to
> good to be true, it probably is.  That lesson is an important one
> to remember as we discuss Social Security reform.
>
I agree.  The cost of the "free lunch" provided by Clinton's plan will
be added directly onto the federal debt, chiefly onto that part of the
federal debt owed to Social Security.  This can be seen from Clinton's
own numbers from the most recent U.S. Budget (these numbers can be seen
at http://people.delphi.com/rd100/ssreform.html ).  I suspect that the
cost of the Archer/Shaw Plan will likewise be added to the federal debt
(I have not yet been able to obtain its projected debt levels).  One
thing that I find promising about the Kolbe-Stenholm plan is that it
does NOT sound like a free lunch.

In any case, it does seem helpful to look at the projected future debt
levels in judging the merits of various plans.  I would very much
appreciate if any of the panelists could provide those projected debt
levels under their plans.  Following are the projected levels under
current law and the Clinton Plan.  Of course, it would be preferable to
look beyond 2004 but that is the most distant year for which I could
find estimates.

Projected debt in    Gross   Gov't  Public
2004 ($billions)      Debt    Debt    Debt
------------------  ------  ------  ------
Under current law   5874.4  2947.9  2926.4
Under Clinton Plan  6776.0  3486.3  3289.6

Reed Davis