I would really appreciate it if the members of Congress would answer my earlier question. I would like to know if they support requiring the Social Security Administration to make the same sort of detailed projections for the components of stock returns (dividends and capital gains), as they do for wages, life expectancy, and every other variable relevant to the solvency of the program, before any Social Security funds go into the stock market. If the answer is no, then why should would have the Social Security Administration make projections of all the relevant variables, when we can just use any number we please on stock returns.
The projected rate of return on stocks does make a huge difference to all the plans that depend on investing in the stock market. No economist in the country has yet been able to show how the return on stocks will be able to significantly exceed the return projected for government bonds, if the Trustees GDP growth projections are correct. If there is little difference in these returns, then it makes no sense to invest Social Security money in the stock market in any form.
Maybe my training in economics makes me too dependent on logic in these arguments. But I can't see why we feel a need for 75 year projections on everything except stock returns.
